A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
